Carl Sagan’s Tools for Baloney Detection #3

3. Arguments from authority carry little weight-“authorities” have made mistakes in the past. They
will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.

I find this a lot in the global warming climate change debate.  A lot of authorities proclaim that global warming could only be man made.  Never mind the wild fluctuations in the past, and evidence of high levels of CO2 combined with lower temperatures.  There are experts in various aspects of climatology, but there is no such thing as a climatologist.  It’s too big and encompassing for anyone to be an expert in every single aspect of it.  It’s just like doctors, either they are general practitioners, or they are specialists in a field, not all or even some fields of medicine.  They have an understanding of what’s going on in other areas, but they rely on specialists in those fields.  I believe global warming is going on, but it’s not man made.  The only piece of evidence proving that global warming is man made is climate modeling.  In other words, we program computers to produce the results we are looking for.  This is called bias confirmation.  Everything else is pure speculation.

Ironically, I diverge from Carl Sagan’s belief in man-made global warming.


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